Cycle Confirmation #6

Quantum Stocks.

With volatility declining and speculative risk appetite expanding as news of a deal between Iran and the USA hits the media, financial conditions appear to be easing once again.

In this update, I’m focusing on some of the leading quantum computing companies which are showing signs of recovery after a cyclical downturn which began last summer.

The companies selected span a range of risk profiles, allowing investors to express a bullish view on quantum computing through several different companies

Welcome to another instalment of my cycle confirmation work, where I identify sectors and assets aligned with the forthcoming liquidity cycle.

The goal is to examine companies through three lenses:

1. Macro cycle awareness

2. Technical structure

3. Balance sheet inflection

I begin by using macro analysis to determine where we are in the cycle, directing attention toward sectors and assets likely to perform in the coming quarters. This forward-looking approach is essential for capturing asymmetry.

From there, I focus on companies behaving constructively or turning at cyclical or secular lows, aiming to identify large, sustainable moves aligned with the macro regime.

Finally, I look for balance sheet inflection. Not perfection, but signs that expectations have reset, deterioration is slowing, and the business remains intact. This includes evidence of stabilizing revenues, improving earnings trends, and manageable financial risk. When these conditions align, the probability of a cyclical turn increases.

I use A.I. as an assistant to combine macro context and fundamental signals with my technical interpretation into a cohesive framework.

The following assets have been through a minor cyclical correction within a larger cyclical trend and are now beginning to show signs of increasing participation. Highly sensitive to the effects of increasing liquidity, their newly developing up trends could be a leading signal of a further easing in financial conditions ahead.

IONQ (IONQ)

IONQ remains one of the strongest companies within the quantum computing sector and continues to demonstrate the type of relative strength often seen in market leaders. Revenue is expected to increase substantially over the coming years, with analyst forecasts suggesting growth from approximately $130 million in 2025 to $265 million in 2026.

While profitability remains some distance away, investors appear increasingly willing to look beyond current earnings in anticipation of future commercial adoption.

Momentum has also improved following the correction, with relative strength recovering and volume expanding during the latest advance. Importantly, the stock remains comfortably above its longer-term moving averages and continues to attract institutional attention due to its position as one of the most established pure-play quantum computing companies available to public investors.

While valuation remains demanding and volatility should be expected, IONQ continues to provide one of the highest-quality exposures to the quantum computing theme. For investors seeking participation in the sector while reducing some of the company-specific risks associated with smaller competitors, IONQ remains a compelling benchmark against which the rest of the group can be measured.

From a technical perspective, the long-term uptrend remains intact. Since 2023, price has advanced within a clearly identifiable rising channel. Advances are rapid and corrections drawn out, a characteristic of constructive price action. A leader of the group, it has now advanced off the support of the lower channel and is trending higher once again.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI)

Rigetti remains one of the more speculative names within the quantum computing sector, but recent price action suggests investor interest is returning following a lengthy consolidation period. After peaking during the quantum enthusiasm of late 2025, the stock entered a broad corrective phase that has largely worked off the excesses of that advance. The decline appears increasingly corrective rather than destructive, with price stabilizing and beginning to rebuild momentum.

Fundamentally, Rigetti remains an early-stage company and carries considerably more risk than larger technology businesses. Revenue remains modest, and profitability is still some distance away. However, analyst forecasts suggest meaningful revenue acceleration over the coming years as commercial quantum applications continue to develop. This combination of improving growth expectations and recovering technical conditions helps explain why the stock continues to attract speculative capital.

For investors seeking higher beta exposure to the quantum theme, Rigetti remains one of the most closely watched names in the sector. While volatility should be expected, the improving technical backdrop suggests that the correction may be maturing into a new accumulation phase rather than the beginning of a larger structural decline.

Technically, the stock has recently broken above a declining resistance line that had contained price action since the beginning of the correction last October. More importantly, the subsequent pullback found support at a higher level, creating the appearance of a successful retest rather than a failed breakout.

Price is now attempting to establish itself above former resistance while remaining within its longer-term rising trend structure.

Momentum indicators have also improved during recent months. Relative strength has begun to recover after an extended period of weakness, while increased trading volume on advances suggests investors are once again becoming willing to position for sector expansion. Although the stock remains well below its previous highs, this leaves considerable room for appreciation should sentiment toward quantum computing continue to improve.

The $15 level remains an important area of technical support. This zone previously acted as resistance before the breakout and is now behaving as support, increasing confidence that the recent advance may represent the early stages of a larger trend continuation rather than a temporary rally.